Yeni Yayın: Ocean Engineering “Multicriteria Emergency Decision for Responding to Man Overboard Casualties: A Proposed Procedure developed using Binary Logistics Regression and General Linear Models
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112581
Highlights
- Man Overboard has the highest fatality rate among all maritime accident types.
- Responders face entering the water in many Man Overboard accidents.
- Survey data was acquired and analyzed using 100 out of possible 854 scenarios.
- The BLR and GLM methods helped develop multi-criteria decision-making.
- The paper proposes a new emergency decision-making procedure.
Abstract
Man overboard (MOB) events are occupational accidents that result in the highest number of fatalities compared to other maritime incidents. Responding to MOB accidents forces responders to make difficult decisions under stressful conditions. Among those difficult decisions is the captain’s choice of having a crew member enter the water to save a MOB casualty while the circumstances develop abruptly. A review of maritime accident investigation reports indicates that most responses seem instinctively reactive, involving human emotions under the effect of challenging environments.
This study focuses on the analysis of Emergency Decision Making (EDM) procedure for MOB casualty events, exploring whether responders should or should not enter the water to rescue a casualty. The study includes a survey and quantitative analyses of the resulting survey data. Ship captains were posed with possible scenarios, and the authors recorded their decisions for each combination of event variables. The results, obtained using both Binary Logistics Regression (BLR) and General Linear Models (GLM), led to an understanding of the response logic for MOB casualty events. Finally, the authors developed an emergency decision-making procedure with two flowcharts for use in general training or emergency drills aboard the ship.